The Great Greenland Game: A Geopolitical Chess Match
In the complex world of international politics, Greenland has become an unexpected battleground. While Donald Trump's interest in Greenland might seem bizarre, it's a move that has caught the attention of global powers, especially China. But here's where it gets controversial: China's perspective on this move is vastly different from Trump's intentions.
Trump claims his plans are about countering a perceived threat, but according to Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign affairs chief, his actions could divide NATO. Trump, on the other hand, believes that China and Russia are eyeing Greenland, and he's determined to prevent that. He wrote, "World peace is at stake! China and Russia want Greenland, and Denmark is powerless to stop them."
From Beijing's viewpoint, Trump's actions are a sign of a crumbling US-led world order, creating an opportunity for China. Professor Wang Wen from Renmin University in Beijing says, "Trump's bullying tactics and hegemonic behavior are well-known, but his occupation of Greenland would be a game-changer for China. It could mean the end of NATO, which is a desirable outcome for us."
The US has long been concerned about China and Russia's increasing presence in the Arctic. In 2019, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned of a "new South China Sea" forming around the North Pole, promising to strengthen the US presence there. However, when it comes to Greenland, China has struggled to make significant inroads, largely due to resistance from the US and Denmark.
Andrew Small, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says, "Chinese strategists aren't worried about the US annexing Greenland. Instead, they see the US alliance network as a significant strategic advantage, and the potential unraveling of those alliances as a benefit to Beijing."
China officially opposes any attempts by the US to undermine the UN Charter, which guarantees state sovereignty. China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, urged the US to stop using the "so-called 'China threat'" as an excuse to impose tariffs on European countries.
Despite these challenges, China has not given up on Greenland. Between 2012 and 2017, China's foreign direct investment in Greenland accounted for over 11% of the territory's GDP, a significant share compared to other Arctic nations. Greenland's desire for Chinese investment to develop its mineral resources has sometimes clashed with the security concerns of Denmark and other NATO allies.
In 2018, China published an Arctic policy white paper, describing itself as a "near-Arctic state" with interests in the region. The paper proposed building a "Polar Silk Road" by developing Arctic shipping routes, aligning it with Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. China also emphasized the opportunities for scientific research in the Arctic.
In October, a Chinese container ship from Ningbo docked in Felixstowe, marking the first successful journey from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route, a route along Russia's Arctic coastline. The journey, operated by a Chinese-controlled container line, took just 20 days, cutting the typical travel time in half.
However, this trade route relies heavily on cooperation with Russia, and since the war in Ukraine, Beijing's closer ties with Moscow have raised suspicions among European countries, especially Russia's neighbors. Chinese companies have struggled to make mining projects in Greenland profitable, and Trump's interest has only made things more difficult.
Patrik Andersson from the Swedish National China Centre says, "Chinese companies in Greenland have faced pushback from the US and Denmark since Trump's first term. Beijing has also discouraged investment there in recent years, so China's engagement in Greenland is now extremely limited."
While China's stake in the Kvanefjeld mining project in southern Greenland suggests an interest in rare earths, the project has been inactive since Greenland banned uranium mining in 2021. Andersson adds, "With western efforts to build rare earth supply chains independent of China, it's unlikely Chinese companies will be allowed to invest in other Greenlandic rare earth projects."
Despite these challenges, China is navigating a tricky situation with a US leader who is disrupting global alliances but whose unpredictability and strongman tendencies could also threaten China's interests.
Additional research by Lillian Yang.
