The Phillies' NL East dominance may be in jeopardy for 2026, according to ZiPS projections. With spring training underway, the Major League Baseball season's predictions are heating up. FanGraphs, a renowned analytics site, uses their ZiPS projection system to predict player performance, team wins, and playoff odds. The Phillies, who were once expected to dominate, now face a challenging outlook.
FanGraphs predicts the Atlanta Braves as the top team in the NL East, with an impressive 90.4 wins, a 41.9% chance of winning the division, and a 9.4% likelihood of winning the World Series. This projection is a stark contrast to the Phillies' fate. The Braves' success is further emphasized by their 10% World Series odds, making them a strong contender.
The New York Mets follow closely behind, with an 89.6-win projection, a 35.2% chance of winning the NL East, and a 7.5% chance of winning the World Series. This puts the Mets just three games ahead of the Phillies, who are projected to finish third. The Mets' recent course correction with key signings like Bo Bichette and Luis Robert Jr. adds to their potential rise in the rankings.
The Phillies' prospects are less favorable, with a projected 87.1 wins, a 67.7% playoff chance, and a 43.2% chance of advancing past the first round. Their odds of winning the NL and reaching the World Series are a mere 8.9%. This is a significant drop from their previous dominance, leaving fans and experts alike questioning the team's recent moves.
The real blow comes from comparing the Phillies' projections to those of the Braves and Mets, who are seen as potential risers. The Phillies' 4.9% chance of winning the World Series is the seventh-highest in baseball, but it feels like a low probability. This update is a stark contrast to recent predictions, leaving Phillies fans concerned about their team's future.
